Friday, January 25, 2008

Potash Corp. (POT)

Chinese potash price negotiations ware expected to conclude by the end of March or the beginning of April, in contrast to the 2006 negotiations that dragged on like "water torture".

Potash buyer ex-China are not holding off purchases, waiting for the outcome of the price negotiations. It's interesting that Russian producers of potash are not shipping product to China at this time.

The comments from company management were that they can expect substantial price increases in China this year. Street EPS estimates will be coming up.

POT reported Q4 net of $1.16, up from $0.58. Street estimates averaged about $0.98. Revenue increased for the quarter to $1.43 B from $1.02 B.

Management gave guidance of $1.30 to $1.60 for Q1.

Continuing to buy shares in both POT and MOS. Also have some shares of TNH, to round out my positions in producers of the three major classes of fertilizer.

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