Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Solar



Akeena Solar (AKNS), recently inked a licensing deal with Suntech Power Holdings (STP), which allows STP to distribute their Andalay solar panel technology to Europe, Japan and Australia. Suntech is estimating sales of over 10 megawatts of the Andalay solar panels to those regions in 2008. AKNS was up over 40% , and STP was up over 4% today.
“Andalay improves on conventional solar panels by including built-in wiring, grounding and racking designed to provide maximum rooftop performance for consumers while minimizing installation costs for solar system installers. The result is a rooftop solar power system with superior built-in reliability with outstanding aesthetics in an all-black, streamlined appearance,” said Barry Cinnamon, CEO of Akeena. “Moreover, an installed Andalay system uses 70 percent fewer parts and requires 25 percent fewer attachment points than traditional solar systems, meaning better long-term performance”.

Suntech has committed to deals for 450 megawatts worth in 2008. It has another 900 megawatts of potential business in the pipeline, but doesn’t have enough silicon or manufacturing capacity to meet all the demand. It expects to reach 1 gigawatt of manufacturing capacity in 2008. This is two years ahead of schedule. It expects to double that by 2010.

Suntech’s solar cells produce electricity at about $2.90 per watt. The company is looking to make that more cost effective by cutting the cost down by 48% in the next five years. For that to happen, silicon prices, which are about 75% of Suntech’s per-unit cost, have to come down. This may happen soon, as silicon producers are ramping up capacity. Suntech has indicated that the current long-term contracts that it is agreeing to show that prices are already dropping. The company is also working on thin film technology and other methods that will allow them to make solar cells with less silicon. If the silicon price hurdle can be cleared, then the industry can grow without government incentives.
But, solar still has problems. What happens when the sun doesn’t shine? Efficiency is still low. The industry average is a little more that 16%. STP’s is 18%-19% efficiency of converting the sun’s rays to energy.
Once silicon, the second-most abundant element on the planet, becomes commoditized, STP’s low cost Chinese manufacturing base will be a big advantage.


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